British Mandate: A Survey of Palestine: Volume I - Page 162

CHAPTER VI.

27. The registration of births and deaths is considered to be fairly complete in Palestine. Some irregularities do, however, arise in the enumeration of natural occurrences among the nonresident population and in the sub-districts with nomadic and semi nomadic populations. But whilst, on the whole, data on the natural increase are reliable, grave difficulties arise in the case of the data on migratory increase. Here lies the second reason for departure from the criterion of de facto population adopted in 1931. The principle followed in the current process of calculating population estimates is to consider as net de facto migratory increase (increase of the de facto population through migration) the difference between the numbers of the recorded arrivals and recorded departures, Recorded arrivals include transit travellers, temporary visitors, immigrants and residents returning. Recorded departures include transit travellers, temporary visitors and residents departing. Three points should be borne in mind in this respect:-

(a) Records considered are only those of the civilian population.

Movements of the military are not taken into consideration and, in addition, during the war movements of Polish, Greek and other refugees have not been included.

(b) Not all the migratory movements are recorded. It is well known that a considerable movement of illegal immigration occurs across the borders of Palestine. Since ln39 records are kept of illegal immigrants enumerated in ships, arrested or inferred from reliable evidence and are included in the population estimates. These records are not complete and similar data for previous years are not known. No allowance has therefore been made for illegal immigration in the years previous to 1039.

(c) Net migration is the residuum of a vast movement of arrivals and departures. In ln32-44, out of 2,ll!l,732 arrivals and 1,861,510 departures, net immigration was 258,222. In so large a movement account must be taken of the possibility of cumulative errors during the fourteen years which have elapsed since the census.

28. In the case of Moslems, uncertainty in the definition of "settled" population, incompleteness of records of natural increase and a certain amount of illegal immigration (mainly from neighbouring countries) are the factors most capable of introducing a margin of error in the compilation of population estimates.

29. The Jewish population bas grown mainly from migratory in increase and consequently incompleteness of the records of immigration is a factor tending to cause understatement in the estimates

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